Flight path to autonomy | World Finance

The global aviation industry has experienced a number of developments in recent years, such as more sustainable and green trips, electric aircraft and better maintenance, repair and revision technology (MRO). The International Air Transport Association (IATA) expects the total world revenue from the airline industry to reach $ 1.01 billion in 2025. If this is the case, it will be the first time that industry income has exceeded the barrier of $ 1 billion, while being an increase of 4.4% compared to 2024.

The number of passengers should affect 5.2 billion this year, which would be an increase of 6.7% compared to last year. It is estimated that freight volumes would increase by 5.8% on an annual basis and also reached 72.5 million tonnes. This expected growth in the global aviation sector has led several aerospace and technological companies to try to develop autonomous planes.

Currently, the main giants of the sector such as Boeing, Airbus, Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman, as well as innovative technological start-ups such as Whisk, Joby and Elroy Air, are working to develop autonomous technologies and flight systems. Countries with solid government funding, sophisticated aerospace ecosystems and strategic defense priorities, such as China, the United States and certain EU nations, lead this development.

The time scales involved
Although vehicles with various degrees of autonomy have become more common recently, fully autonomous cars (level five) are not yet available in the general public. Likewise, fully autonomous planes could still take several years to be available on the free market, although related technologies such as automatic recognition of targets have been operational for some time now. Air vehicles (UAV) or drones or autonomous and specialized drones have also been functional for years. Dan Bubb, aviation historian and teacher associated in residence, UNLV Honors College, noted: “There is no doubt that aviation technology continues to make giant jumps, including automation. Some companies predict that autonomous planes will dominate aviation by the 2040s. I can consider that in the military, cargo and general aviation sectors. ”

Fully autonomous planes could still take several years to be available on the free market

Dr. Walter Stockwell, vice-president of engineering at Anello Photonics, also expects the versions of autonomous aircraft to be more adopted in surveillance, specialized missions and short-term freight, with broader commercial passenger requests that may occur over the next 10 to 15 years. “Hybrid models combining autonomy with human surveillance could dominate the sky in the early 2030s,” said Stockwell.
The tensions of the war of Russia-Ukraine and the Middle East in progress and the tensions of the Middle East and the Middle East have all contributed to an increase in the thrust of the bottlenecks of the supply chain and constraints in recent years. They led to long ship delays and detours, a shortage of certain products, as well as significant financial losses.

Autonomous cargo and logistics planes have the potential to reduce many of these constraints. As such, they could probably be ready for large-scale operations from the next five to 10 years, according to Sylvester Kaczmarek, director of technology at Orbisky Systems. However, one of the main factors affecting the chronology of autonomous planes is the time it takes to fully understand the risks concerning artificial intelligence and autonomy, as well as to cause appropriate legislation to regulate this technology.

Disturbing the aviation sector
Autonomous planes can improve decision -making and awareness of the situation, especially when analyzing data with AI. They can also facilitate the dangerous zone and remote operations, while reducing operational costs and having the potential of operations 24/7. These planes could also increase efficiency, mainly by optimized fuel consumption and flight tracks.

Bill Irby, the CEO of Ageagle Aerial Systems, explained: “The potential gain is enormous. Airlines and military organizations have gone through many periods of shortages and surplus pilots and flight crews. The implementation of autonomy could even help staff overvoltages. ”

Autonomy could mean that more AI technicians and distant operators are necessary, rather than pilots, considerably modifying the landscape of the aviation labor market. The smallest aerial teams overall can become the standard. According to Stockwell, new commercial models ranging from urban air taxis to high -frequency cargo drones could transform the aviation industry at all levels. Other commercial models include rapid cargoes from the middle of the community and specialized delivery and surveillance aircraft.

Michael Healander, CEO and co-founder of Airspace Link, believes that the immediate impact of autonomous aviation will be observed through drones in areas such as infrastructure inspection, emergency services and agricultural surveillance.

“As the digital infrastructure matches, we will see integration into traditional aviation which will eventually extend to autonomous air taxis which move people as well as goods, revolutionizing urban transport networks while generating new income flows for airports and municipalities,” said Healander. On the other hand, autonomy will also affect the management of airspace, while requiring that the entire industry provides more regulations relating to safety, safety and fair use of technology.

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According to a recent McKinsey report, a number of companies developing autonomous planes could potentially require between $ 1 billion and $ 2 billion for development, prototyping and tests necessary for type -type certification.

Irby noted that some of these investments were already underway. “Several advanced air mobility organizations (AAM) are already investing several million dollars in this emerging area. Government offices are also committed, and taking into account what has been in progress in recent years in combat areas, it is obvious that government technological investments must increase to develop and be part of these technologies at a faster rate, “said Irby.

According to Healander, the United States is now in a privileged position to lead in the greater value segments of autonomous systems and the airspace management infrastructure. However, more investments by American technology giants, logistics and aerospace companies will be necessary to accelerate this transition. New navigability declaration models and new government and industry equipment standards are also essential.

“The countries that will ultimately lead this space will be those which best balance innovation with appropriate regulatory frameworks – creating safe systems for large -scale autonomous operations rather than simply manufacturing equipment,” said Healander. To launch autonomous large -scale planes, as well as regulatory executives, the investment must also focus on public acceptance and technological infrastructure.

The private sector must continue to work on detection and avoidance systems, aircraft design and control control solutions, among others. At the same time, public-private partnerships will be essential to accelerate this transition. One of the other things required would be the inertial navigation systems (INS), which includes new generation optical gyroscopes. Better AI and autonomous decision -making systems are also necessary, which are able to judge critical and real -time judgments through the aviation ecosystem.

Looking at the challenges
In addition to the significant financial investment required, one of the main challenges of development and the scale of autonomous aircraft is to create solid detection and avoidance capacities that will ensure safety in dynamic and complex environments. The development of the robust digital infrastructure necessary to manage millions of daily flights remotely is also difficult.

Irby highlighted: “The real machine-learning and autonomy are very complex areas which require considerable calculation power. This is a stimulation limitation if the on-board autonomy is the intention, given the compromise of size-in-law for the aircraft. ”

With autonomous planes, I think it will take more time to convince the public

Irby added: “The other complex area is moral clarity and moral application of autonomy. Nations have different opinions on the application of technologies, especially when you consider the precision of human life. ” Navigating in the changing regulatory landscape while maintaining public confidence can also be difficult, especially when vehicles already offering autonomous characteristics, such as Tesla, continue to deal with problems.
BUBB said: “How to regulate autonomous planes to ensure that they are safe? Given the recent wave of accidents that have taken place and the deep concern that the public has on air security, how to overcome this concern? With autonomous planes, I think it will take more time to convince the public, and we will have to work even harder than we are now.”

However, he stressed that rapid developments in aircraft technology such as better navigation instruments, aerodynamic efficiency and cabin design are very encouraging.

Real world tests are also much more difficult for autonomous planes than for autonomous cars, despite some of their similarities. “An UAV cannot simply stop on the side of the highway if there is a problem – so access to airspace for tests and acceptance of test failures are essential to advance technology,” said Stockwell.

Another major problem is the protection of the cybersecurity of autonomous systems, as well as a risk management plan in the event of technical problems and failures, in particular given the generalized impact of the recent failure of Microsoft and Crowstrike. Cybersecurity can ensure that key tools such as navigation, control links and on -board systems are protected from attacks.

The integration of air traffic, which involves the management of mixed airspace with inhabited and autonomous planes in complete safety, can also be difficult. “We believe that the foundation of successful autonomy lies in navigation technologies which are tolerant of breakdowns, precise and independent, ensuring that autonomous flight is not only possible, but safe and evolving in all environments,” concluded Stockwell. n