While the cross-border transformation accelerates in Asia, Europe and the Middle East, American mergers and acquisitions face the contrary winds from prices, fears of recession and regulatory decline.
The activity of mergers and acquisitions experienced a good start in 2025, the global value of the agreement exceeding $ 1.2 billion until April, according to Dealogic. However, more is spent for less, since the number of transactions is a hollow of two decades. Only 6,955 agreements were announced in the first quarter; It is down 16% compared to the fourth quarter of 2024.
Recession fears, renewed trade tensions and changing politicians weigh heavily on business leaders and investment capital companies, especially in the United States, where assessments remain flat.
“The transactions were concluded in the first quarter, but it was slow and will probably become slower as the year is progressing. I request updated projections in 2025, but there is an uncertainty on the markets and how the prices will take place, and an hesitation in providing these 2025 projections, “explains David ACHARYA, Director partner at ACHARYA Capital Partners. “I heard similar comments from my peers – Senior Investment is associated with the responsibilities of the investment committee.”
Consider the figures. Since May 1, Dealiogic shows us that the value of mergers and acquisitions is $ 575.6 billion. It is down 1% compared to the period last year. Other regions are on the opposite trajectory: Japan, $ 42 billion (up 133%); Asia, $ 251.4 billion (73%); Canada, $ 52.4 billion (54%); Middle East / Africa, $ 31.4 billion (51%); And Europe, $ 257.8 billion (7%).
For the figures to be where they are, investment banks do not have many mega offers to boast. In March, Google’s mother -based company, alphabet, bought Cybersecurity Startup Wiz for around $ 32 billion. There was also the agreement of $ 16.4 billion between Constellation and Calpine Corp., as well as the investment of $ 22.8 billion from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in four public banks. In Europe, the OMV of Austria concluded an agreement with Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. to merge their companies with respective polyolefins; The combined entity has purchased Nova Chemicals Corp for $ 13.4 billion.
Technology, finance, health care, public services and oil and gas remain the most dynamic sectors around the world. Technology and finance both exceeded the three -month period last year in terms of dollars spent.
“In the United States, the volume of mergers and acquisitions decreased on an annual basis, while most of the other markets in Asia and Europe have increased,” said Takashi Toyokawa of Ignosi Partners. “I expected this trend to continue in the next two quarters until there is a certain level of certainty in the United States.”
For the first quarter, the US trade department announced that the economy had decreased for the first time in three years. The 0.3% contraction was fed by companies that rushed to develop strategies in response to the confused trade policy of President Donald Trump.
“Although we note that the transactions that have been underway since last year always cross the finish line, the uncertainty driven by the taxation of prices in the United States and the increase in long-term interest rates, which has in turn led to the volatility of the market, definitively made the market accidents think twice.
The current scenario contrasts strongly with what the big banks were waiting for at the end of 2024 and the beginning of 2025.
“The rhythm of mergers and acquisitions in the world has grown [in 2024]And there are signs that transactions accelerated in 2025, “said Stephan Feldgoisse and Mark Sorrell, mergers and acquisitions of Goldman Sachs, in a joint statement in December.
The CEO of JPMorgan Chase, Jamie Dimon, was also optimistic. A few days before the inauguration of Trump, the boss of the Bank pointed out: “Companies are more optimistic about the economy, and they are encouraged by expectations for a more pro-growth program and the improvement of collaboration between government and business.”
No more. According to the Wall Street Journal, Dimon recently told investors during IMF meetings that a recession was the best result.
Hopefully that a second term Trump would bring regulations to mergers and more loose acquisitions would also have been annihilated. The Ministry of Justice and the Federal Commerce Commission is just as difficult as during Trump’s first term, as well as under the former president Joe Biden. Recent prosecution blocking the acquisition of Juniper Networks from Hewlett Packard Enterprise and 611 million over -plan dollars of GTCR show that even under Trump, antitrust executors do not ensure.
The dynamics of will between us and Japanese Steel, based in Tokyo, does not serve as a useful gauge for how the White House plans to manage M&A regulations, in particular when it is a cross -border proposal. Under Biden, the agreement was blocked due to the fact that the former administration examined national security risks. Trump opposed this last year, but was undecided on this subject.
“The market thought that there would be a relief of the hard anti-fusion position of the Biden administration, not the open season on mergers and acquisitions,” said Julian Klymochko, accelerating Julian Klymochko. “He is sure to say that this did not happen.”
It remains to be seen if the professionals of mergers and acquisitions note that optimism at the beginning of the year remains to be seen. After all, hopes were raised that the repressed request, sufficient capital and a presidential administration adapted to companies would feed a wave of consolidations.
Instead, the dynamism of the agreement has stalled, weighed down by the growing volatility of the market and growing economic uncertainty, explained Andrew Lucano, co -president of mergers and acquisitions in the law firm Seyfarth Shaw.
“Recent American trade policies have introduced significant unpredictability, triggering market oscillations and causing the prudence of participants in the agreements, in particular those who have exposure to tariff risk,” explains Lucano. “Uncertainty has always been one of the greatest inhibitors in the transaction, and this is exactly where we are at the moment.