The miracle of meta gains could be finished: is a collapse to come?
Say what you want in Meta, but one thing is clear – they used to beat Wall Street’s expectations.
In the last two quarters only, Meta posted average surprises of profits of 18.12%. More recently, the company delivered $ 8.02 per share against an estimate of Zacks of $ 6.68, a surprise of more than 20%. The quarter before that? Another solid rhythm.
And again, the before these gains configuration seems favorable: Meta ESP’s income is + 2.52%, associated with a Rank # 3 Zacks (Hold) – a combination that statistically produces a surprise of positive profits almost 70% of the time.
So yes – on paper, the meta looks ready to deliver.
But here is the twist: it could be the neighborhood it stumbles.
The question of AI: where is the gain?
Meta’s open-source IA model, Llama, has won numerous praise in the developer community, but this also raises eyebrows among investors.
While competitors like Openai and Google take place to lock up commercial partnerships and paid models, Meta emits its technology. This can be ideal for innovation, but without a clear monetization strategy, it is difficult to say how – or when – these investments will be chargeable.
Unless Meta announces something substantial this quarter, Wall Street could start asking more difficult questions.
Reality Labs: always a drag on the bottom line
Then there are reality laboratories, the Metaferse of Meta arm. It was a financial hole – posing more than $ 16 billion in losses in only 2024, without a revolutionary product or traditional traction in sight.
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Helmets do not fly shelves.
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Horizon Worlds has not become the next great thing.
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And while Meta continues to talk about the long -term vision, investors wonder:
How long lasts too much?
If this quarter brings another cycle of heavy losses without changing strategy, expect a repression.
The issues of April 30 are massive
Meta is not only another technological action – it is a market mover. He is a main actor in the account of AI and the advertising ecosystem on social networks. Whatever happens on April 30 will not be isolated in a single company – it could kiss throughout the technological sector.
This is what makes this report on critical gains.
Unpopular opinion: a beat may not be enough
On paper, another beat of earnings seems likely. But here is where things become difficult:
With so many focus – and expenses – linked to AI and Metaverse, there is a real risk that the growth in basic advertising revenues slows down.
And if Reality Labs publishes another loss of several billion dollars, without an advantage or a clear pivot, investors can stop being patient.
Even if Meta beats expectations again, it may not be the kind of Beat Wall Street. The stock could drop anyway, especially if the advice before is vague or if the monetization of the AI remains troubled.
Conclusion: it’s the makeup season
Zuckerberg has never played safely. But in 2025, the market wanted more than major ideas – it wants a clear return on investment.
Meta’s past success bought time, but April 30 will show if this time is exhausted – or if the long game finally begins to bear fruit.
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